$200 Oil and Time for Anthropic to Sell to Google
I just don’t see a halt to the Iran War. The defense contractors have their hooks into the Trump Administration. They needed to replace Afghanistan with something, which replaced Iraq. Iran will be 20 years of recurring revenue for Lockheed, RTX, Boeing and Northrup - those who control U.S. foreign policy. It won’t go so swimmingly boys. Watch. Then what? Who will be held accountable?
I predict $200/barrel oil by July and $20 for a dozen eggs also by July.
In the meantime I am refactoring code with Sonnet and Opus 4.6.
BTW, Anthropic undershot what it will require for compute in 2027. Anthropic will have to continue to out-innovate OpenAI which will have more compute than Anthropic in 2027, 2028 and probably 2029. It might be time for Dario to sell to Google and his friend Demis at DeepMind while valuations are rich.
Get ready for the money supply to go higher as Treasury issues debt to fund the Iran War and as the Fed has to step into the breach to buy crap U.S. paper.