A Better Read On Employment Data

Employment data published by the BLS is worthless in my view as it is self-serving. I prefer ADP’s National Employment Report (NER), which is not perfect, but represents better quality data than that published by the BLS. In terms of ADP’s NER, I prefer to analyze unadjusted numbers before they are manipulated by “seasonal adjustments”.

Our chart below plots the year-over-year percentage change in national employment (not adjusted for seasonality), as measured by ADP on a weekly basis.

• The below chart directionally aligns with what I have observed as it relates to national employment in reviewing earnings calls, reviewing RIF reports, bankruptcy filings and the like over the past few years.

• The below chart especially appears correct in relation to the past year (the yellow circle), over which time most employers that I am aware of are holding FTEs flat or are cutting FTEs.

• ADPs seasonally adjusted employment figures (not shown here), paint a picture of a robust U.S. economy with an employment chart that is up and to the right. That is simply not reality in my view. Our chart better represents actual private sector employment.

• TEK2day Premium subscribers may access the Excel file including our charts below the paywall.

Source: ADP NER; TEK2day