Anthropic's 37x Run Rate Revenue Valuation

Anthropic raised $13 billion at a $183 billion post-money valuation.

• ICONIQ led with Fidelity and Lightspeed Ventures. Others participating included Altimeter, Baillie Gifford, affiliated funds of BlackRock, Blackstone, Coatue, D1 Capital Partners, General Atlantic, General Catalyst, GIC, Growth Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives, Insight Partners, Jane Street, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, Qatar Investment Authority, TPG, T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc., WCM Investment Management, and XN. Valuation means nothing to these people. All discipline has been lost.

• The $100 billion LLM is not happening anytime soon, if ever, as we said would be the case. For users, this means get used to incremental model improvements.

• I would expect for Google (GOOGL) and xAI to start to pull away, especially as it relates to automated coding. As good as Anthropic is at automated coding, $13 billion rounds won’t get it done against the larger balance sheets of Google and Elon Musk’s xAI. Even OpenAI’s outrageous valuation will not enable it to acquire the dry powder it needs to keep pace with Google and xAI.

• Investors should consider that Anthropic’s two largest customers are Microsoft (MSFT) and Cursor, (not end customers), both of which are losing money on Gen AI.

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