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Apr 9, 2024
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Jonathan Maietta's avatar

Agreed. The U.S. will try to compensate for lost productivity (smaller population), by printing money and accelerating deficit spending. CBO public debt estimates are conservative (https://1drv.ms/x/c/ffcdae192569269c/EVZqmMEQ5lVMqnqN5iivLyoBNYM5393jotvIanjTjnX6uw?e=p0dEh8). I’d rather the U.S. take the pain now as opposed to perpetuating this debt-funded, money-printing charade. The longer the U.S. kicks the can down the road, the worse the day of reckoning will be. My guess is that those in Washington DC will run this fiscal deficit, monetary printing playbook until the Dollar suffers from hyperinflation. The U.S. will lose its reserve currency status first, then suffer hyperinflation, then experience an abrupt, forced pivot to a gold standard. I wish I were smart enough to predict the timeline.