Fed Rate Cut Incoming
If oil persists above $100/barrel and if the U.S. continues to dig a fiscal hole for itself in Iran, the Fed will cut rates on April 29th, probably by 1/4 point.
That may help ease bond yields temporarily, but I expect the 10YR yield to go much higher. Certainly above 5% by June. It is difficult for me to imagine a bond investor convincing themselves that a 4-5% yield on the 10YR is a good ROIC, especially when M2 is growing by more than 4% YoY each month.
