Goodbye Jerome Powell?
Banks have increased credit even as the 10-year yield has pushed higher, thereby mitigating the effects of tighter monetary policy from May 2022 until the BTFP bailout was created in March 2023 (the end of the tightening cycle from my perspective).
Meanwhile credit delinquencies tick higher, long yields continue to move higher and prices continue to move higher.
My view is that Fed Chairman Powell will struggle to extricate himself from this self-inflicted predicament, and will resign in 1H 2025, perhaps even 1Q 2025.
