How Soon Before the Fed has its Fed Funds Rate Below 2%? At 0%?

• It is 50/50 in my view that Fed Funds will be at 2% by December 18th.

• It is 50/50 that Fed Funds will be at 0% by March 19th.

• The Fed won't wait for future FOMC meetings to lower (after September's session on the 17th and 18th), but I do fully expect the Fed to lower at each of the next number of FOMC meetings.

• The reason for the Fed lowering Fed funds? It’s really three-fold: 1.) $35 Trillion in Debt outstanding means that the Interest Expense on that Debt is now the second largest fiscal expense behind Social Security payments. 2.) Bank of America is suffering with over $100 billion of unrealized losses. 3.) The consumer is hurting.

---