Look To ADBE For A Peak at How Tech Companies Will Guide To 2024
Most every Technology company will guide conservatively to full year 2024 Revenue and EPS estimates. Of course ADBE guided conservatively. What is the incentive for management teams to do otherwise when macro visibility is limited?
2024 will be a down year for most Technology companies as it relates to Revenue and Earnings growth.
Rates and prices remain elevated. The Consumer will continue to pull back, which also impacts the Enterprise side.
2024 could very well be the type of year where companies issue conservative 2024 guidance in January and February only to track toward the low-end of the range when Q2 is reported in July and August. Many companies may be forced to lower what was already conservative full year guidance once they find themselves at the midpoint of the year.
Where will pockets of growth exist? The LLM companies will continue building models at an accelerated rate. Some of those firms may go public in 2024. This bodes well for NVDA’s data center business in the first part of the year. Longer-term it will be fascinating to see if there is any difference in LLM performance between OpenAI’s and other companies’ LLMs built with NVDA chips and AWS’ LLMs which are increasingly powered by Amazon’s in-house chips developed in Austin.