LT Interest Rates: The Next Shoe To Drop
Investors had been threatening $2,000 gold and $30 silver for a decade-plus, both exploded in 2025 as Central Banks (for years) and large asset houses all got in on the buyside. Fiscal and Monetary Policy had forever lost its way in 2020 (at least until the Dollar flirts with zero). There was simply too much market momentum in 2025 to hide this fact or for the big banks (J.P. Morgan - the market manipulator in chief), to continue to manipulate markets to the contrary.
I don’t know how much longer the Treasury Market will pretend that there is nothing to see here. The U.S. is obviously insolvent. Who in their right mind would hold 10 Year Treasuries with only a paltry 4% yield as compensation? The issuer is $40 Trillion in debt while running multi-trillion dollar annual deficits. 10% Yield? Nope, not enough for me.
At some point the 10YR Treasury yield will blast off from 4%. Don’t know how, don’t know when, but my guess would be sometime within the next 5 years.