More Negative Jobs Data on Friday?
More Negative Jobs Data on Friday? My guess is “yes”. Labor participation and payroll revisions are trending in the wrong direction. It is unclear what would reverse this negative trend.
Labor Participation rate is the blue line with its values on the left, Unemployment is the red line plotted on the right. Both are trending in the wrong direction.
I would guess that Friday’s job data will be more of the same, with key measures trending in the wrong direction and more negative revisions.
I would expect July’s 73K non-farm number to be revised downward, perhaps into negative territory. Recall that May’s non-farm number was revised down by 125,000 and June was revised down by 133,000.
It is impossible to have faith in any Government reported metric, jobs data and CPI in particular.