OpenAI's Revenue Outlook
The chart at the bottom was published by The Information. Below are my thoughts on OpenAI’s 2026 and 2027 Revenue outlook.
OpenAI did approx $10B in Consumer Revenues in 2025 (no Ad Revenue).
900 million weekly active users. 50 million paid Consumer users as of Feb. 2026. That math works out to $200/user/year or $16.67 per user per month (I don’t know what OpenAI’s international pricing looks like. For the U.S., it was $0, $20, $30, or $200/month in 2025. 2026 will include an $8 per user per month Ad-suppoted tier).
OpenAI expects approx $20B in Consumer revenues for 2026:
100 million paid Consumers implies $200/user/year or $17/user/month;
75 million paid Consumers implies $267/user/year or $22/user/month;
125 million paid Consumers implies $160/user/year or $13/user/month
2026 and 2027 look reasonable to me on OpenAI’s Consumer business.
B2B Revenues are questionable in my view:
On the B2B side, OpenAI will do Govt/DoD work with Oracle and Palantir.
OpenAI will do lots of business on the Life Sciences side (how much 2026 and 2027 Revenue is anyone’s guess).
For Software coding, OpenAI will lose to Anthropic’s Claude Code. The 32 repos I have on Github could only be completed with Claude Code, not OpenAI’s Codex (even though I prefer Codex’s UI): https://github.com/jmaietta
I am back to building my personal AI agent with Claude Code. I have used it to build level one integrations with all Google products (Gmail, Photos, Maps, Drive, Docs, Sheets, YouTube, YouTube Music, Messages, etc.). I could not do the tough coding without Claude Code.
You can play with the Web version of the AI Personal Agent here for free while I iterate on it. I will eventually put the full app (better performance than the website), on the Google Play store. The Android app works great on my Samsung phone. Here is the website version on my personal site: https://chat.jonmaietta.com/