PayPal's Transaction Volumes Reflect A Slowing Global Economy
My view is that PayPal’s transaction volumes are reflective of a slowing global economy.
I believe the U.S. and Global economies have been slowing in real terms since the end of 2021 when adjusted for real-world prices increases. As it relates to the United States economy, recall that our view is that CPI and the GDP Deflator are understated, therefore Government reported “Real GDP” is an artificially high figure.
When looking at PYPL’s transaction volumes, one can see that growth has slowed. I believe PYPL’s TPV is indicative of the economy in that people are not necessarily consuming more units of X, Y and Z, but rather the price of X, Y and Z keeps climbing due to money supply expanding policies of the Fed, the EU, China, etc.
Speaking of the EU, Christine Lagarde’s opinions on Trade are rich given that it is dovish Central Bank monetary policy that drives the cost of goods and services higher in an endless effort to keep the debt-funded global economy afloat.
Here’s hoping that Powell & Company do nothing at November’s FOMC meeting as it relates to the Fed Funds rate. The money supply is already growing far too rapidly.