Q3 GDP 2nd Estimate Likely Lower Tomorrow
We do not model Nominal nor Real GDP estimates. However, our view over the past two years has consistently been that Real GDP is inflated as the GDP deflator (i.e. price increases) is understated. When the BEA releases the 2nd estimate for Q3 Real GDP tomorrow at 8:30am ET, our guess is that the number will be lower than the 4.9% initial estimate released on October 26th. We believe that the 3rd Q3 2023 Real GDP estimate will be lower than the 2nd.
At a high level, we would expect for 2024 full year Real GDP to be negative 1-2%, potentially even lower as the consumer continues to weaken.