Still Far Too Much Gen AI Hype. Google Gemini Will Be A Good First Gen AI Demand Test.

There is still far too much Gen AI hype in the equity market.

• OpenAI/Microsoft is spending money with Nvidia for NVDA’s chips. Microsoft is spending money with OpenAI for OpenAI’s LLMs. These two relationships probably account for 60-70% of the Gen AI spend taking place today.

• To a lesser degree Google, AWS and others are spending money on NVDA’s chips and Application layer companies are spending money building on top of the LLMs built by OpenAI, Google and Amazon which are housed in Azure, Google Cloud Platform and AWS.

• I believe that the first real user-demand test will be tracking the number of users (consumers and commercial users) who subscribe to Google’s “Google One AI Premium” package, which includes Google’s Gen AI model - Gemini 1.5. I walk through this in the brief video below.

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