TEK2day Round Up: Telegram, The Fed and NVIDIA
Telegram: Given that Telegram is not end-to-end encrypted by default, it is easy to imagine why heavy-handed Governments (France, the U.S., others), want access to its servers. See interview with Telegram co-founder - Pavel Durov - HERE.
Powell and the Fed - how to fix monetary policy: The Fed never really tightened monetary policy to where we had positive real interest rates given that CPI is materially understated. True price inflation - if backed out of Nominal GDP - would have knocked Real GDP into negative territory for each and every quarter over the past several years in my view. I believe that Powell and the Fed should get out of the interest rate management game and should instead be very aggressive about removing the excess money stock from the system by way of aggressively paring its balance sheet to January 2020 (pre-pandemic) levels.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Generally speaking I do not like expensive stocks. There is absolutely an “AI” bubble associated with the LLM build cycle. Many Gen AI startups are looking for potential acquirers as Gen AI funding has dried up. That is the first crack. The next crack in my view will be when the number of corporate Gen AI experiments materially slows. At that point you will see either Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta or Anthropic pull back on LLM investment, which will hurt NVIDIA. I believe this scenario will happen before NVIDIA faces a stiff GPU challenge from AMD or anyone else.