The CPI "Gasoline" Category was Manipulated Downward
Yesterday’s CPI data looked about where I expected it to be (although the data does not obviously reflect real world prices, which are much higher). However, the “Energy” category caught my eye, particularly the “Motor Fuel” subcategory which consists of unleaded regular, midgrade and premium gasoline.
My personal experience with gasoline is that March pump prices were a bit higher than February’s. Going from memory, I believe that was the case with state and national averages - flat to up.
The “unadjusted” reported CPI figures in our table below show a less than one percentage point decline in gasoline prices from February 2025 to March 2025. However, the “seasonally adjusted” (e.g., politically manipulated), figures show a decline of more than 6% over the same period.
What did the Bureau of Labor Statistics do to this month’s seasonal adjustment? Here is what the BLS did to bring the price of gasoline down in its official CPI figures – this is the BLS’ own language (I have included the link below the text). The BLS used “Intervention Analysis” - a discretionary process for manipulating data:
“Intervention Analysis
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment (IASA) for some CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of price change. IASA is a process by which the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.
2024 Series Adjusted Using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment
For the seasonal factors introduced in February 2025, BLS adjusted 63 series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, and vehicles.”
