The Price of Oil Points to Economic Weakness, Not Natural Gas' Strength

I know that a number of people would say that Oil’s price weakness is due to consumption rotation into Natural Gas, but that feels like an excuse or a partial truth at best. Oil’s price weakness reflects consumer weakness, which means economic weakness is here for some time.

Source: HERE

• Too many investors are explaining away clear signs of economic weakness, as was the case in 2007 before the bottom fell out in 2008.

• 2025 will look different than 2008 because unlike 2008, Hank Paulson (fmr. Treasury Secretary) is not around to send the Capital Markets into a panic by collapsing an investment bank or two.

• The great risk coming out of this next downturn will be an overly dovish response. (You must be a paid subscriber to see our fiscal deficit estimates for fiscal 2024 and 2025 below. Hint: 2024’s deficit will get a lot worse in September, and fiscal 2025’s deficit is likely to be at a record level by September 30th 2025).