Unemployment Numbers Are Understated
Unemployment numbers are understated because many small businesses do not file for bankruptcy protection. Therefore, their data is not captured in the Unemployment figures.
When those businesses permanently close their doors, it falls under the radar.
Private data vendors such as Epiq Global do not capture this information either.
I am directionally curious about the Government Unemployment data. It was a weak summer season from a vacation bookings standpoint on the east coast (no surprise, it’s been slow since May, ABNB’s numbers showed this weakness). Some summer seasonal places (residences and restaurants) closed early on the East coast.
Price inflation has caused the economic pain that the Consumer is feeling. I do not believe that the Fed cutting Fed Funds by 25-50 BPS this week will have much of an impact on the real economy.
Treasury needs to slow the pace of spending in conjunction with Congress and the Executive Branch.
The Fed needs to stop printing money.
Banks need to tighten credit standards. Then, we can strengthen the Dollar over a longer period of time by not running deficits and carrying more Gold reserves.